This is politics . . .

The issue of Gay marriage has come to the forefront in the U.K. because of The PM's pledge to introduce it into law next year. It's an emotive issue for many, but in the context of my thoughts here it's just an example of what politicians and political parties sometimes feel they have to do, especially when they perceive they're being left behind by public opinion.

When David Cameron became Conservative Party leader, he set about trying to detoxify the Tory brand in the eyes of people who had voted for New Labour under Tony Blair or even the LibDems because they no longer felt comfortable voting Conservative. The Green agenda and the Big Society were among the results. It didn't quite work in the 2010 General Election, and with the economy set to scrape along the bottom through the next election in May 2015 any ballast that can be thrown overboard before then that might keep anyone from voting Tory is being targeted. The Republicans in the U.S. are going to have to do the same sort of thing in regard to immigration policy. 

But I think it's very important in both cases to understand that just trying to remove blockages to people voting for your party rather by default is not often enough to achieve victory. Labour will have to come up with positive policies before the next election that amount to more than "We're not Them". Likewise I believe the Conservatives will have to stop circling around the question of EU membership and adopt something like what has been called a Back to the Common Market or Out policy. As for the LibDems . . . I just don't know where they go from here. I imagine they will try to take credit for everything popular the Coalition has done (well, they already do that) and pin the rest on the Tories. But will that work? I doubt it.

Political parties do often stand on principles, but they generally don't like to sink with them. So while I'm personally opposed to homosexual marriage, I fully understand why it's a Conservative PM who is proposing it.

As so often, London weather has skipped straight from Winter to Summer. Here are some pics I took yesterday of flowers in our garden.

Things I Hate about TV

I watch a LOT of television - news, sports, drama,. comedy, movies, documentaries, etc. But there are certain things that drive me up the wall, especially on satellite/cable stations.

1) The amount of time given over to commercials, including those for their own programs. Terrestrial TV in the UK either has no ad breaks (BBC) or a strictly limited number. Non-terrestrial stations however have seemingly endless commercial breaks. And they definiutely coordinate when they're on, so you can rarely find a channel that is not also showing ads at the same time. Which brings me to . . .

2) The quite disgraceful content of so many of the ads. Satellite channels are full of ads for "Pay Day" loans (with annual interest rates of thousands of percent), ambulance chasing lawyers ("If we don't win, you pay nothing"), insurance companies and insurance search sites, and currently lawyers wanting you to sign up with them to get back missold PPI (when the best advice is you do this yourself without having to pay a fee to anyone). I can't help thinking of how much money these people must be making off the gullibility and desperation of others.

3) News and sports anchor people who so often say at the end of an interview "We'll have to leave it there". Just say thank you and move on. Also . . .

4) Reporters - or whatever you want to call them - who ask victims of some tragedy "How do you feel . . . " This also goes for asking this question of triumphant sportsmen and women.

5) Endless "reality TV" shows. I quite enjoyed Big Brother in its early years - and made some great new friends of other fans in the process - but later it - and the contestants - became too self aware for it to represent even the semblance of "reality". The Apprentice still hangs on to some credibility, but it's a close run thing. All other of these shows that have appeared since should go into Room 101.

6) Sports announcers who try to make the event they're covering exciting, when we can see perfectly well whether it is or not. Some of them raise their voice in mini-orgasms 50 times a match for 2 or 3 really significant moments only.

7) Documentaries which clutter themselves with irrelevant images and recreations and/or talk down to the viewer. BBC used to be immune from this disease, but it's definitely creeping in.

8) Watching "Civilisation" recently, I noticed again that Lord Clark walked and talked, but NEVER at the same time. Nowadays presenters are forever in motion. It's distracting and completely unnecessary.

9) Newsreaders who end a pre-commercial segment by announcing that "after the break" they'll be talking about something, then don't actually do so until one or two additional commercial breaks have occurred. It's transparently aimed at keeping you watching through as many ads as possible, and I find it disingenuous and very irritating.

10) Lots more that I can't think of at the moment.

But I still love TV, even with all its flaws.

First Predictions of U.S. Elections 2012

I know this is WAY too early to be doing this sort of thing, but I thought I'd put myself out there at the beginning of the year so I can be hailed or more likely ridiculed after Election night in November.


First I'll forecast the U.S. Senate that I think will take office on January 20, 2013.


The current line-up is 53 Democrats (including 2 Independents that support them) and 47 Republicans. Of these 23 Democratic seats (including the 2 Independents) are up for election and only 10 Republicans.


I project that Republicans will lose 1 seat (in Arizona IF Gabby Giffords is the Democrat candidate), the retiring Joe Lieberman's Independent seat will go to a Democrat, and the Democrats will lose 9 seats to Republicans in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin.


So my prediction for the make-up of the new U.S. Senate is 45 Democrats (including 1 Independent) and 55 Republicans.


Now to the U.S. Presidency:


In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 Electoral votes to John McCain's 173.


I project that all the States John McCain took in 2008 will also go Republican in 2012. In addition, I believe the Republican candidate will take the following States that went to Barack Obama last time: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.


Because of the changes in some States' Electoral votes due to the 2010 Census, this would mean the Republican candidate winning 303 Electoral votes and Pres. Obama 235.


I will confess that these numbers are based in my mind on Mitt Romney winning the Republican Presidential nomination.


Given my projections above, it is probably needless to say that I believe the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives.









So there you have it. Events will doubtless make many of these predictions look pretty stupid by election day, but what's the fun in playing safe!