First Predictions of U.S. Elections 2012

I know this is WAY too early to be doing this sort of thing, but I thought I'd put myself out there at the beginning of the year so I can be hailed or more likely ridiculed after Election night in November.


First I'll forecast the U.S. Senate that I think will take office on January 20, 2013.


The current line-up is 53 Democrats (including 2 Independents that support them) and 47 Republicans. Of these 23 Democratic seats (including the 2 Independents) are up for election and only 10 Republicans.


I project that Republicans will lose 1 seat (in Arizona IF Gabby Giffords is the Democrat candidate), the retiring Joe Lieberman's Independent seat will go to a Democrat, and the Democrats will lose 9 seats to Republicans in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin.


So my prediction for the make-up of the new U.S. Senate is 45 Democrats (including 1 Independent) and 55 Republicans.


Now to the U.S. Presidency:


In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 Electoral votes to John McCain's 173.


I project that all the States John McCain took in 2008 will also go Republican in 2012. In addition, I believe the Republican candidate will take the following States that went to Barack Obama last time: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.


Because of the changes in some States' Electoral votes due to the 2010 Census, this would mean the Republican candidate winning 303 Electoral votes and Pres. Obama 235.


I will confess that these numbers are based in my mind on Mitt Romney winning the Republican Presidential nomination.


Given my projections above, it is probably needless to say that I believe the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives.









So there you have it. Events will doubtless make many of these predictions look pretty stupid by election day, but what's the fun in playing safe!