First Predictions of U.S. Elections 2012

I know this is WAY too early to be doing this sort of thing, but I thought I'd put myself out there at the beginning of the year so I can be hailed or more likely ridiculed after Election night in November.


First I'll forecast the U.S. Senate that I think will take office on January 20, 2013.


The current line-up is 53 Democrats (including 2 Independents that support them) and 47 Republicans. Of these 23 Democratic seats (including the 2 Independents) are up for election and only 10 Republicans.


I project that Republicans will lose 1 seat (in Arizona IF Gabby Giffords is the Democrat candidate), the retiring Joe Lieberman's Independent seat will go to a Democrat, and the Democrats will lose 9 seats to Republicans in Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Jersey, North Dakota, Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia, and Wisconsin.


So my prediction for the make-up of the new U.S. Senate is 45 Democrats (including 1 Independent) and 55 Republicans.


Now to the U.S. Presidency:


In 2008, Barack Obama won 365 Electoral votes to John McCain's 173.


I project that all the States John McCain took in 2008 will also go Republican in 2012. In addition, I believe the Republican candidate will take the following States that went to Barack Obama last time: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.


Because of the changes in some States' Electoral votes due to the 2010 Census, this would mean the Republican candidate winning 303 Electoral votes and Pres. Obama 235.


I will confess that these numbers are based in my mind on Mitt Romney winning the Republican Presidential nomination.


Given my projections above, it is probably needless to say that I believe the Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives.









So there you have it. Events will doubtless make many of these predictions look pretty stupid by election day, but what's the fun in playing safe!

Onward to 2012

The New Year promises much: The London Olympics, the Queen's Diamond Jubilee, and the possibility of the election of a new U.S. President amongst them. As an OAP now, I'm pretty much protected from the vicissitudes of the economy - a considerable Blessing. But in the U.S. if not in Europe even things in that realm may improve a bit in 2012. So I think we are justified in enjoying New Year's Eve and looking forward to the New Year.

Winter in September in North Devon

I'm just back from afew days in Westward Ho! on the North Devon coast. Quite a fun little resort town with some good restaurants. But the Sun was never in evidence - unlike the wind and rain! I was there last about 25 years ago, and I don't recall the weather being any different then. I now get the message. No more trips there EVER!

Libyan Spring

I'm sitting here watching pictures from Tripoli as rebels enter Gaddafi's compound. While we should rightly be concerned about what happens in Libya post-Gaddafi, we should celebrate the Libyan people's courage and tenacity - and the support of NATO which firstr saved Benghazi and has now enabled the fall of one of the world's most unpleasant (and crazy) dictators. Nicolas Sarkozy and (even more perhaps) David Cameron deserve great credit for this. They got a reluctant U.S. on board, they got the necessary resolution through the U.N. Security Council, and then put together a coalition to degrade Gaddafi's firepower whenever and wherever needed. Syria, Iran, and Venezuela need to be liberated by their people now.

Captain America

This film opened in the U.K. today, and I saw it this mor5ning. I can highly recommend it - good writing, strong cast, and fascinating story.

A Year to go to Olympics

Having finally acquired a pair of tickets to an event in the Olympic Park (only hockey, but never mind), I'm actually looking forward to the London Olympics. There's the predictable British cynicism, but I think these Games will be well run and people-friendly. Transport will doubtless be a challenging problem, but fortunately we're a 45 minute straight journey on the Central Line to Stratford. Now all we need ius some decent weather a year from now!

Todays' trip to the new M&Ms World in London!